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Seton Hall Basketball: Kevin Willard vs. Bobby Gonzalez - KenPom Edition

Ken Pomeroy recently added coaching statistics to the long list of helpful tools on his wonderful website. While we are only one season into Kevin Willard's tenure in South Orange, I think his team's statistics last season as well as at Iona can more or less be accurately compared and contrasted to Bobby Gonzalez's body of work as Captain of the Pirate ship.

First, Kevin Willard's 'Coaching Resume': 

Bobbyw_medium

(Click on the picture to enlarge)

What's obvious is an overall focus on defense. Willard's teams have done well in 2PT & 3PT percentage defense, eFG% (effective FG percentage), turnover percentage, and AdjD (Adjusted Defensive Efficiency). Seton Hall actually finished 13th in AdjD this past season - an improvement of over one hundred places in just one season.

On the offensive end, Willard's teams have struggled for the most part. To be optimistic, last season's team finished 50th in TO%, something that should be improved upon next season with a senior point guard and no Keon Lawrence, Mr. Turnover himself.

Now, Gonzo's resume: 

Bobbyg_medium

Not surprisingly, Gonzalez's resume sports a more offensive minded approach to the game with a mediocre to poor defensive side of the board. Bobby's teams always posted excellent turnover percentages and hovered around the Top 50 of Adjusted Offenses.

What isn't immediately noticeable is the fact that Gonzo's teams weren't as good with the rock in their hands as one would think they would be. I certainly expected a 'greener' left side of his resume because of the ability of past Pirate teams to fill it up. The disconnect between their ability to score and their resume is because of KenPom's rather complex ratings. For example, Virginia Military Institute, known for their extremely high scoring outputs, was rated just 67th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency last season. Their offensive numbers hovered around the Top 25, but they didn't exactly mirror their NCAA's best 87.9PPG that they posted last season. For more on exactly how KenPom's ratings work, this page is a good place to start reading.

Further, I think its interesting to compare Willard's resume to that of his mentor, Rick Pitino:

Pitino_medium

While Pitino's teams were certainly more talented, it definitely looks like his teams were generally similar to that of Kevin Willard's. Pitino has produced overall solid defensive teams that lacked the overwhelming firepower on the offensive end. Lastly, Pitino's reputation of having free-flowing, 3PT chucking teams would assuredly lead to 'green' offensive and 'red' defensive categories, right? Wrong.

With all this great information out of the table, nothing is really too groundbreaking. However, it is important to evaluate what Willard has done at Iona and Seton Hall, compare that to what he inherited (poor defensive fundamentals) from Bobby Gonzalez and speculate about how his teams of the future may play (Rick Pitino.)

Kevin Willard has received a fair amount of heat from Seton Hall fans, including this blog, for his free reign when it came to things like Jeff Robinson's three point shooting, Keon Lawrence playing time and his usage of some reserve forwards. My questions to you guys are:

  • Was Willard rolling the dice when it came to his offensive game plan (Robinson 3PTers, etc)?
  • Do you think Willard will adopt a more aggressive and risky offensive gameplan now a majority of his players are his recruits or does he stick to a conservative defense & 3PT shooting battle plan that we saw last year?
  • Are you content with Willard's approach to the game (defense & 3PT) -- is that even your opinion of his coaching style?
  • Overall, do you prefer Willard's conservative approach or Gonzalez's more risky style?

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1. He was absolutely rolling the dice with J-Rob 3’s but he must have felt that J-Rob was a good 3pt shooter or he must have been good in practice. At some point though, he should have put an end to it
2. I think we might run a bit more in the future but for the most part I expect more of the same. 3Pt shooting, running on occasion, and other-words some pretty average at best offense
3. I am content with the 3pt shooting and defense strategy as long as we get some shooters in here (like Grennan, Cosby, Wilson, and maybe Karlis, plus Auda, JT, and Fuquan). It works for Louisville with less talent than most of the big name teams and maybe we could be the next Louisville. I would like to see Willard press more this year to pick up the tempo but overall I like his strategy as it has been proven to work by his mentor.
4. I prefer Willard’s style 100 times to Gonzo’s style. Willard will run organized, team-orientated basketball that will bring the best out of his players. Gonzo ran terrible defense on a team that was clearly capable of playing D (see last season’s defensive numbers). If Gonzo ever preached a little D this team could have been in the NCAA tournament. Willard will eventually get a decent offense and when you combine it with our D, we can become a NCAA tournament team. Just have to be patient

My Seton Hall blog: http://thesetonhallblog.blogspot.com/
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My Draft Blog: draftdatabase.wordpress.com

by seton hall and steelers on Jun 30, 2011 12:20 PM EDT reply actions  

You're right

Willard’s game plan might resemble Pitino’s but as far as I can see – what’s wrong with that. Considering the team he inherited, defense is a whole lot easier to teach than shooting. Imagine if he didn’t stress defense last season, it would have been ugly. And the new recruits: Wilson, Cosby and Grennan are the shooters he needs to make the system work. If they can play at the BE level.

by fouline on Jun 30, 2011 12:56 PM EDT reply actions  

I prefer Willard as well

for two reasons:

1- a defense-first system will almost always keep you in the game, and

2- Gonzo’s system was very one-player based. In the offense, it was Hazell, and on defense, it was Paul Gause (once Gause graduated, the press had no teeth).

Twitter: @JPGuerette
Email: jason.guerette@student.shu.edu

by JPGuerette on Jun 30, 2011 2:27 PM EDT reply actions  

Balance

I agree w JP on Gause. His amazing defense led to easy offensive pts.

To be competitive, I expect more variety offensive variety:
More set plays, with 1st and 2ndary options
More inside scoring (healthy pope, Auda improvement, + some frosh contribution)
More From Fu and Theodore on creating with dribble drives

Hope to come close to the secondary chance points we had on offensive boards last season. When J Rob was standing where he was supposed to, he had some monster games on the offensive glass and when Pope was healthy, he had his moments as well

by PaulPierce on Jun 30, 2011 2:59 PM EDT reply actions  

I'll take a shot at this...

1) I don’t know if Willard was, “rolling the dice,” per se. I think the approach in his first year (with many guys that didn’t fit his system was), play the way I want you to on defense and you’ll have freedom offensively. Remember Willard told us he didn’t expect the guys to know more than 30% (I believe the number was) of the system before conference play? It seemed like there was a lot of trial and error on the offensive end and it seemed a little play-groundish to me. There were very few set plays, they didn’t work the ball inside enough and often, it seemed like guys were playing one-on-one all too much on the offensive end. Nothing was set and guys would dribble around before settling on their own shot, or one pass on a shot. In a nutshell, the offensive execution was far from pretty. I expect that to improve drastically going forward.

2) I don’t know if he adapts a more “risky” approach on offense, but I do expect him and the players to be better prepared in his system. And I don’t know that he’ll settle with good defense and a 3-PT shooting battle, because I don’t believe the roster is talented enough to pull that off. Not that they pulled it off to any extremes last year, but we did lose two guys that played pretty good D in Robinson and Lawrence. Is the roster including the 6 freshman well equipped to focus on defense? Will Grennan/Karlis/Wilson/Cosby be able to stay in front of their man at this level? Assuming Johnson is eligible, will he have any more of a clue on the defensive end than Geramipoor? I guess I’m in between, here. I expect Willard to revise the offensive gameplan, but I don’t expect our defense to be as good as it was last year and hopefully we’ll shoot the longball at a better clip.

3) I’m not content and I don’t think Coach is either. I don’t expect another player to get away with the permanent green-light as Robinson did last year. If it starts to present itself this year, I’m confident that Willard will end that. There needs to be plays for a slashing Edwin, there needs to be a mid-range game from Auda, Pope (remember, he can shoot it from 12-18), and Mobley, there needs to be an effort to get the ball inside to Pope and (eek.. Geramipoor?) and KJ. Easier said than done, but we need more of a planned, balanced offense. We shot ourselves out of entirely too many games last year. When the 3 isn’t falling for a player or a team, you’ve got to hit plan B. A plan that I expect us to have this year that was SORELY lacking last.

4) With all of that said, I prefer Willard’s style. Gonzo’s team wrecked havoc defensively in flashes, as JP alluded to with Gause frustrating the opposition for streches here or there, but it was never sustained. Willard has shown a focus on the defensive end and that’s where a young ballclub is going to need to win games. Let’s face it, we’re not winning games this year by getting into shootouts and hitting a better percentage than our opponents. This team would probably lose that high-powered VMI shootout of a couple years back. We need to play defense (and that’s more on the players now than the system) to stay in games and hit some shots late in the game. Closing has obviously been a thorn the past few seasons, but a team that sticks to the plan defensively for 40 minutes will be better equipped at closing than a team relying on long balls and forced circus layups. Which brings me to another point, with Keon gone (but Jordan still reamining), PLEASE. I’m begging you. NO MORE FORCED CIRCUS LAYUPS!

Founder & Editor of SouthOrangeJuice.Com
Bye, Bye, Bobby!

by GonzoBallSHU on Jul 1, 2011 10:48 AM EDT reply actions  

Last year did seem like...

a pick-up game approach. But only early on. Gradually the team seemed to become more coherent on the court. Willard’s approach was probably the best solution at the time. How was he going to undue what the team was doing for years under BG? It wasn’t going to happen. Habit and lack of basketball IQ are hard to overcome. And don’t underestimate The lack of IQ on the court. That did SHU in more often than not. There were games when the action stopped for what seemed to be an eternity while our players tried to figure out what to do. That’s where circus shots, low percentage shots or turnovers come in. I expect the team to lose games this year but hopefully they will lose because don’t have the experience and talent as opposed to making stupid decisions on the court.

by fouline on Jul 1, 2011 1:45 PM EDT reply actions  

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