A statistical look at the new Big East

Everyone is happy about the "new" Big East. - USA TODAY Sports

A beautiful bombshell was dropped yesterday in the form of a new home for the Catholic 7. Joining The Seven in the "new" Big East are Butler, Xavier and most likely Creighton. St. Louis and Dayton are expected to join the party in time for the 2014-15 season.

There is no doubt that the Big East will lose significant talent as it morphs as a conference. However, the 5 mid-majors that are penciled in to join the conference are no slouches. Here is how they've performed over the last 8 seasons (2 full recruiting cycles):


Butler Xavier Creighton Dayton Saint Louis
Avg. Record 25.1 - 9.3 24.1 - 9.6 23 - 11.1 21-12.2 17.5 - 14.5
Avg. Final KenPom rating 67 41 67 87 114
NCAA Appearances 5 7 3 1 1
Sweet 16 3 4 0 0 0
Final 4 2 0 0 0 0

Notes: Both of Butler's Final Four appearances resulted in losses in the final -- Duke (2010) and UConn (2011)... One Xavier's 4 Sweet 16 appearances was also an Elite 8 showing (2008) ... Saint Louis looks to add their second NCAA appearance in 9 years this March ... Dayton won the NIT in 2010 and have appeared in the NIT 4 times in the past 8 seasons.

Now lets see how these schools match up against the Catholic 7 over the last 8 seasons:


Avg. Record Avg. Final KenPom NCAA apps. Sweet 16 Final 4
Georgetown 23 - 10.2 16 6 1 1
Villanova 23.1 - 10.5 27 7 4 1
Butler 25.1 - 9.3 67 5 3 2
Xavier 24.1 - 9.6 41 7 4 0
Marquette 23 - 11 34 7 2 0
Creighton 23 - 11.1 67 3 0 0
Seton Hall 16.2 - 14.7 77 1 0 0
Dayton 21 - 12.2 87 1 0 0
St. John's 14.3 - 16.5 99 1 0 0
Saint Louis 17.5 - 14.5 114 1 0 0
Providence 15 - 16 81 0 0 0
DePaul 9.8 - 17.2 117 0 0 0

I ranked the 12 schools based on a combination of the 5 statistics above and conference affiliation ... Catholic 7 schools only finished with a final KenPom rating below 150 on four occasions: St. John's (2011), DePaul (2009, 2010, 2011) ..The Catholic 7 have combined for 22 NCAA appearances over 8 seasons (22/56, 39%) ... The other five schools have reached the NCAA tournament 15 times over 8 seasons (15/40, 37%) ... Butler has as many Final 4 appearances as the Catholic 7 combined over the past 8 years and more (2) showings in the title game than the other eleven schools put together (0).

I did not include any data from the current season or projected performance over the next season or two. Here is how the 12 schools will likely finish their seasons:

NCAA bound (or close) in 2012-13: Georgetown, Villanova (bubble-IN), Butler, Marquette, Creighton (bubble), Saint Louis

NIT (maybe): Xavier, Providence, Dayton, St. John's

No postseason likely: Seton Hall, DePaul

Conclusion: Of the ten schools expected to make up the Big East in 2013-14, I would rank Seton Hall around 7th or 8th. That is a reflection of the relatively even, yet talented, playing field that will compose the Big East. The above charts show mostly recent success -- Seton Hall is in the middle of the pack while Xavier and Butler fit in right at the top and Creighton sits on the same tier as the Pirates.

An extremely early projection at how next year's pre-season coaches poll may look (Saint Louis and Dayton are not included):

  1. Georgetown
  2. Marquette
  3. Butler
  4. Villanova
  5. St. John's
  6. Creighton (Doug McDermott?)
  7. Providence
  8. Seton Hall
  9. Xavier
  10. DePaul
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join South Orange Juice

You must be a member of South Orange Juice to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at South Orange Juice. You should read them.

Join South Orange Juice

You must be a member of South Orange Juice to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at South Orange Juice. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker